Intrade Members Trading Contracts on FDIC-Bank Failures

Intrade.com is the prediction market where members can buy contracts on the likelihood of certain future events occurring. Whether it be the next US President or the Academey Awards this site will let members bid on the outcome. A contract for Barack Obama winning the US presidency will cost a member a price of 60.8 for a future value of 100.0 if Obama is elected president. Just like the stock market prices go up and down by the minute as relevant news is occurs. One of the most recent additions to the site is the trading on whether or not certain banks will fail before December 31, 2008. The most recent bids include:

Downey Financial 55.0

Bank United Financial 45.0

FirstFed Financial 30.0

First Horizon Bank 30.0

Wachovia Bank 20.0

Washington Mutual Bank 20.0

Zions Bankcorp 20.0

US Bank Corporation 15.0

Regions Financial 15.0

M&T Bank Corporation 15.0

Is this information relevant or insightful? Nobody knows for sure, although it will be interesting to follow the prices for the remainder of the year.

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