Unemployment: Could it get worse before it gets better?

August 10, 2010

By Barbara Marquand | Money Rates Columnist

Have we seen the worst of the economy yet?

Theoretically, yes, but brace yourself: Unemployment numbers might actually go higher.

In a recent appearance on ABC's Good Morning America, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said we might see a couple of months where the unemployment rate rises.

"The one thing that happens in recoveries is people start to come back to the labor force, and that can cause measured unemployment to go up temporarily," he said. "But what we expect to see, and I think private forecasters expect this, is an economy that's gradually healing."

Those who have given up hope and stopped looking for jobs aren't counted by the government among the unemployed. As they regain some hope and enter the job-seeking market, though, their numbers add to the official count, thus boosting the unemployment rate.

Low rates on savings accounts: For how much longer?

With a nationwide unemployment rate at 9.5 percent already, that's not exactly comforting news, especially in states like Nevada where the problem is even worse. Unemployment in the Silver State, where the boom-bust housing market cycle has left construction and other industries reeling, was a whopping 14.2 percent in June 2010.

Employment must improve for interest rates on savings accounts, money market accounts and CDs to go up. The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy is to keep interest rates low for "an extended period" to nurse the economy toward recovery. How long that extended period will be is anybody's guess. In his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress in July, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee that the Fed is prepared to take even further action if necessary.

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